Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is reportedly on the cusp of an unprecedented electoral victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, an outcome that would mark the first time a far-right party has taken control of a regional parliament in Germany since the Second World War. Exit poll results from Sunday evening indicated a significant political challenge for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), who have governed the state for over two decades.
The exit poll showed the pro-Russian AfD potentially securing 44.5 per cent of the vote, a substantial increase from the 20.8 per cent it achieved in 2021 and exceeding recent opinion polls that had placed the party around 40 per cent. Conversely, Mr Merz’s CDU saw its support fall sharply to 18.5 per cent in the exit poll, down from 37.1 per cent in 2021. The CDU currently leads a coalition in Saxony-Anhalt with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the free-market Free Democrats (FDP).
Approximately 1.7 million of Saxony-Anhalt’s 2.1 million residents were eligible to vote, with participation reaching a record high of 76.5 per cent. The AfD had aimed to secure an absolute majority, requiring over 50 per cent of the vote, which would have allowed it to implement its agenda without needing coalition partners. While the exit poll results fall short of this absolute majority, the party’s strong showing creates a complex political landscape.
Should the AfD ultimately form a government in the regional parliament, it would signify a breach of Germany’s long-standing "firewall" — the practice where established parties form coalitions specifically to prevent far-right parties from gaining power. This principle has been a cornerstone of German post-war politics.
The AfD has outlined clear policy intentions should it come to power, as detailed in its "Vision 2026" election manifesto. The party seeks to restrict immigration, withdraw Germany from the Eurozone, and re-establish closer ties with Russia, a position that diverges significantly from much of Europe's current alignment in support of Ukraine.
A potential AfD-led state government would pursue wide-ranging reforms across various policy areas, including migration, education, culture, and family. Under Germany’s federal system, state governments hold significant powers over education, domestic security, and cultural policy, and also sit in the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat.
In terms of migration, an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt would launch a concerted effort to curb immigration. This would involve establishing a task force dedicated to coordinating quicker deportations. Furthermore, the party proposes placing the children of refugees into separate classes at school, citing claims of "stresses" on other children from exposure to different cultures.
Educational policy changes would also extend to children with disabilities, who would no longer be integrated into mainstream classrooms but instead be sent to newly established specialised schools. The party's agenda includes prohibiting the flying of rainbow flags in schools and using "all legal avenues" to limit expressions of Islam.
Regarding family policy, the AfD asserts that increased acceptance of what it terms "sexual deviations and non-reproductive lifestyles" has contributed to declining birth rates. Consequently, an AfD government would aim to actively promote "traditional" family structures comprising a mother, father, and children. The school curriculum would also undergo significant changes to reflect a "patriotic cultural policy," which would include raising the German national flag daily and singing the national anthem at school celebrations.
The party's stance on the conflict in Ukraine also outlines a controversial position: it would advocate for removing war refugee status for Ukrainians residing in Germany, provided the conflict remains concentrated in eastern Ukraine. The AfD argues that under such circumstances, Ukrainian refugees should seek sanctuary in western Ukraine instead.
Beyond social and educational policies, the AfD's plans include dismantling the existing structure of the public broadcasting system and withdrawing funding from certain cultural institutions within the state.
The potential for an AfD-led administration also raises concerns regarding domestic security. The party’s branch in Saxony is currently assessed by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as a "far-right extremist" group. This classification prompts questions about the level of intelligence information an AfD-led regional parliament would be able to access and its implications for state security operations.
Despite its strong showing, the AfD will likely require support from another party to form a government, as the exit poll percentage falls short of an absolute majority. Coalition negotiations in Saxony-Anhalt are expected to be particularly challenging, given that all major parties, with the exception of the small far-left BSW party, have publicly ruled out joining a coalition with the AfD.
Following the exit poll, AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel stated that the party would be open to discussions with any "sensible party" with whom it could identify common policy ground.
The CDU, despite suffering significant losses, may still attempt to assemble a "firewall coalition" to prevent the AfD from governing. A similar situation occurred in the state of Thuringia in 2024, where the AfD secured over 30 per cent of the vote but was unable to form an absolute majority government.
However, the Brookings Institution, an American think tank, believes that organising a CDU-led governing majority in Saxony-Anhalt faces "almost insurmountable difficulties." This challenge is exacerbated by the CDU’s steadfast refusal to enter any coalition with the staunchly socialist party Die Linke (The Left). Despite the CDU's stance, Die Linke, which garnered an estimated 9.4 per cent of the vote in the exit polls, has indicated its willingness to consider an arrangement to support a CDU-led government over an AfD administration. Nevertheless, the CDU faces internal divisions over the prospect of such an alliance with a party it considers to be on the far left.
Ahead of Sunday’s election, Chancellor Merz had stated that the CDU would "assess the situation in light of the election results" and "do everything we can to prevent Saxony-Anhalt from falling into the hands of the radicals." State premier Sven Schulze congratulated the AfD after the exit poll, acknowledging it as the strongest party. If the AfD is unable to rule outright, the state could face a protracted period of political wrangling and coalition building by mainstream parties, all determined to exclude a party under investigation for right-wing extremism by Germany’s domestic intelligence service.
Regardless of the eventual outcome of the coalition talks, the scale of the AfD's electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt is significant for its national standing and represents a considerable blow to Chancellor Merz’s federal coalition government.
Nationwide, the AfD has seen its popularity surge, now polling at 29 per cent, making it the most popular party in Germany. Concurrently, Mr Merz has become the most unpopular chancellor since the founding of the Federal Republic, with 85 per cent of voters expressing dissatisfaction with his leadership.
Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of Germany’s centre-left SPD party and Vice-Chancellor in Mr Merz’s governing coalition, commented after the exit poll that the Saxony-Anhalt result serves as a signal for national politics in Berlin. Speaking to public broadcaster ZDF, Mr Klingbeil stated that the result provides "a reason to reflect on the federal government’s policies," adding, "And rest assured, that is what we will do."
Chancellor Merz has already sought to adopt a tougher stance on immigration, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to curb the AfD's rising popularity. The AfD's strong regional performance is expected to intensify its efforts to influence national policy. Furthermore, its pro-Russia stance could become a point of contention regarding European support for Ukraine, particularly given Germany's historical caution in providing weapons to Ukraine during Russia's invasion.
Mr Merz is anticipated to face increasing political pressure concerning his position and the stability of his government, a situation the AfD will likely seek to exploit in both future regional elections and the broader national polls.
