US President Donald Trump has asserted that the ongoing conflict with Iran will conclude "immediately" after November's midterm elections, a timeframe he also linked to a significant drop in global oil prices. Mr Trump made the comments on Wednesday as he travelled to Texas for the Republican Party's first-ever midterm election convention, reiterating the sentiment during his address there.
The President suggested that Tehran "can't hold out any longer" and that oil prices would begin "tumbling downward" right after the elections. He further claimed that Iran was "desperate to try and affect the election" by aiming to secure a "nice weak group of people in there" – an apparent reference to the Democratic Party – who would "leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon".
Mr Trump provided no evidence to support his claim regarding Iran's alleged attempt to influence the US elections. Tehran has consistently denied that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. At the Texas convention, Mr Trump echoed his remarks, stating that the price of oil would tumble "as soon as we win the war with Iran."
The President acknowledged public dissatisfaction regarding the conflict's economic fallout, referencing individuals who have approached him expressing concerns: "Guys come up to me and say, 'I wish you didn't do the war in Iran. Now gasoline is up'". Despite this, he argued that "short-term economic pain was worth it to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons."
The US-Iran conflict is now in its seventh month, significantly longer than Mr Trump's initial prediction of a matter of weeks. The prolonged fighting and its ripple effects on costs, from fuel to groceries, have contributed to a steep decline in his approval ratings and increased pressure from within his own Republican Party to bring the conflict to an end.
The midterm elections, scheduled for 3 November, are critical for the Republican Party, which faces the risk of losing its control over Congress. Historically, the sitting president's party often loses seats in Congress during midterm elections. Mr Trump's convention address aimed to energise the party base ahead of these crucial votes.
Amid the President's remarks, fighting in the Middle East has intensified in recent days, with oil facilities across the region coming under attack. This escalation has driven up global fuel prices and, by extension, the cost of various items that rely on shipping. On Wednesday, the price of oil reached $100 a barrel, a level not seen since July. Similarly, US diesel prices hit an all-time high earlier this week, an increase expected to have broad ripple effects on consumer prices across the United States.
On the same Wednesday, the US military confirmed it had attacked five oil tanker ships with reported ties to Iran. In response, according to Iranian state media, Tehran launched retaliatory attacks on two US Navy destroyers and eight oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly causing "heavy damage" to the vessels. A day prior, Iran-linked Houthi rebels in Yemen conducted a series of attacks in Saudi Arabia, resulting in fires at several oil facilities.
This resurgence of hostilities follows the formal expiration of a 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran last month. The ongoing conflict and rising fuel costs have also prompted predictions of potential interest rate hikes in the US.
Regarding future engagement, Mr Trump stated that further negotiations with Iran were a possibility, but clarified, "it's not something we're looking at" currently.
